Crystal Ball with Hyperion Strategic Finance

The business climate has never been more uncertain with critical drivers such as commodity prices experiencing record volatility. Every strategic decision seems to contain significantly more inherent risk and a broader range of potential outcomes. To ensure long term success, many companies are looking to enhance their scenario planning capabilities to help them better prepare for today’s increased risk and uncertainty.

Typical forecasting concentrates on individual data points or simplified scenario analysis on a handful of possible outcomes. For example, a company may forecast as its base case that revenues will grow by 5%, but also analyze the effect of revenue growth as low as 2% in a downside or as high as 7% in an upside case. This approach often assumes that any of these outcomes is equally likely and neglects to examine or quantify the full range of possible outcomes.  The result can be a very misleading forecast, with no explicit quantification of the relative risk across the range of results.  Oracle’s Crystal Ball allows analysts to explicitly factor in not only the potential ranges on key assumptions, but also the relative risks of performance within each range, as well as quantifying the relationship between related assumptions.  
                                                                 
Blue Stone International has worked with many clients to integrate Crystal Ball with Hyperion Strategic Finance to help analysts more robustly manage the risk and uncertainty of their forecasts. With this capability, analysts can run Monte Carlo simulations on selected assumptions in their Hyperion Strategic Finance models to more completely understand and proactively plan for today’s uncertain business environment.

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